Reports And Publications
Summary of the Planning Assumptions for the pandemic in 2009
The tables below summarise the key planning assumptions. As noted above, this represents a “reasonable worst case” for which to plan, not a prediction. The first table covers the specific period until the end of August, while the second covers the first major wave of A(H1N1) infection more generally. They are explained in more detail in the supporting text below. All apply both across the UK and to local areas except where specific local assumptions are shown.
Planning assumptions to August 31st 2009
Assumption
| Clinical Attack Rate | 5%-10% |
| Peak clinical attack rate | 2-5% per week |
| Complication rate | 15% of clinical cases |
| Hospitalisation rate | 2% of clinical cases |
| Case fatality rate | 0.1% of clinical cases3 |
| Peak Absence rate | 9% of workforce |
Planning assumptions for first
major pandemic wave
| Clinical Attack Rate | 30% |
| Peak clinical attack rate | 6.5% (local planning assumption 4.5%-8%) per week |
| Complication rate | 15% of clinical cases |
| Hospitalisation rate | 2% of clinical cases |
| Case fatality rate | 0.1-0.35% of clinical cases 3 |
| Peak Absence rate | 12% of workforce |
Geographic Spread
There may be a large variation in epidemic profile from one local area to another (even for a given overall clinical attack rate). The planning assumptions are thus shown both across the UK and for local areas where different.